General

Teacher shortage persists

Now that the corona crisis is clearing other industries, side entrants are en masse to register with school boards. Exit teacher shortage? No. The problem remains urgent due to a huge pension wave and an increased estimate of the number of students.

Tekst Robert Sikkes en Arno Kersten- redactie Onderwijsblad - 8 september 2020 - 4 Minuten om te lezen

cover education magazine teacher shortage

Picture: Type tank

Primary schools in Maas and Waal have filled all vacancies, the newspaper sought the Gelderlander from. Mediator Master job counts fewer vacancies. Remarkably, more than three times as many unemployed young people from the education sector registered with the UWV before the summer. Not 125 like last year, but 416. Small numbers, but still. At the AOb Reports are coming in that no more side entrants are being hired in Amsterdam. This still happens in other large cities. The Hague was struggling shortly before the summer with a shortage of more than three hundred full-time jobs, especially in the disadvantaged neighborhoods. Reported in May Rotterdam there are still four hundred unfilled vacancies, which are fewer now, according to the municipality AD. In emergency plans, unauthorized persons still fill the gaps.

The current picture of the deficit is diverse. A growing group of people who have lost their jobs in the corona crisis see education as a good alternative for the time being. They then come up against the absorption capacity of the schools to guide them. Amsterdam school administrator Arnold Jonk had to say no to potential lateral entrants a few times. “I could have placed a few more people.” He says that lateral entrants require extra effort from the team, which is no easy feat in times of teacher shortages and Covid-19.

Discounts

Numerous temporary and structural effects determine whether people decide to enter or leave education. For example, there are structurally more pupils and students than expected, the Ministry of Education reported in mid-July new reference estimates. These forecasts mean that more teachers are needed and they form the basis for the September budget.

Higher expenditure than anticipated, which in recent years has always led to cuts in the total education budget. Certainly because the forecasts for higher education were invariably underestimated, with enormous additional costs for the Minister of Education. This is also the case now: more students than expected in all sectors, especially in higher professional education. Prinsjesdag will show what Rutte III will do with it. Will the cabinet - which is already facing major extra costs due to corona - add money or will there be discounts, as before during these cabinet periods, due to underestimations of students at colleges and universities? The only windfall may still be that the large group of foreign students is falling under the influence of the corona crisis.

Pension wave

At the same time, the number of pensions in the education sector is peaking. Mainly because it was agreed in 2019 that the state pension age goes up less quickly and will not reach 2024 until 67. A large group will receive state pension three to eight months earlier for the next five years. Center data has included this effect in new forecasts, but the question is whether expectations have been adjusted sufficiently. At the beginning of this year, the ABP pension fund registered between 50 and 60 percent more pension applications than the average in the four years before. That wave will continue for a while.

In the United States, Education Week reported that due to the corona crisis, more elderly people are taking early retirement because they are fed up with online teaching and do not see it as real education. Whether this effect will occur here remains to be seen, when the pension data for September become known.

Of course there are also positive developments. The pre-registration of the teacher training college grew strongly, with nine hundred extra freshmen, that is 11 percent more. The number of side entrants is also increasing, currently around XNUMX are studying. Barbara de Kort of the National Teacher Training Consultation thinks that both teacher training and lateral intake may grow even further due to the economic consequences of the corona crisis. 'People have discovered how important the profession is, how valuable and appreciated the weather is,' says De Kort in het NOS Radio 1 News. However, will that effect continue if the economy picks up and employers in other sectors start looking for staff again?

Moreover, the situation is less rosy in secondary education. The pre-registrations for teacher training at university colleges remain stable. Last year the number of freshmen even decreased. For the real shortage subjects (science subjects and languages) the numbers at colleges and universities are really too small to absorb the pension outflow. Recent research from labor market platform Voion to the interest in science subjects in university teacher training courses also paints a sad picture. There have been a lot more science students in recent years, but only a fraction of them want to become teachers and that number is not growing with the influx of science and technology students.

Perspective

All in all, only one conclusion is possible: the teacher shortage remains. Certainly in primary and secondary education, but probably also in MBO and higher education. The UWV published a list with promising professions where there is still a lot of work and professions that have been hit by the corona crisis or have little prospect of a job anyway. Teaching assistants are in the latter group, but primary and secondary school teachers (languages and exact) are still on the list of promising professions. The UWV 'stress indicator' is also in the red for teachers in higher education. The shortage remains.