New teacher shortage forecasts remain alarming
The shortage of teachers in primary and special education is growing less rapidly, but will inevitably increase in the coming years and cause more and more problems. In large cities, for example, classes are fuller due to the shortage. In the future, the deficit will worsen in the coming years. Not for all subjects, but for the well-known shortage subjects such as science subjects, French, German and classical languages.
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This is evident from new forecasts from Center data that the education ministers sent to the Lower House this week.
'windfall'
The shortage in primary and special education will not be around 2024 in 4500, but around 3000 full-time teachers. This is a stroke of luck, but education ministers Ingrid van Engelshoven (D66) and Arie Slob (ChristenUnie) warn against optimism in their letter about the new forecasts to the Lower House. 'There is certainly no question of a bump in the trend that will disappear by itself. Measures against the teacher shortage will continue to be necessary in order to be able to provide sufficiently high-quality education in the future as well. ' A thick pile appeared along with the letter reports on the education labor market.
There is certainly no bump in the trend that will go away on its own. Measures against the teacher shortage will continue to be necessary
modifications
The lower shortages for primary education are the result of changes in the forecast model of research agency Centerdata, such as the start date of 1 October 2018. As a result, existing vacancies on that date are not included. The deficit now expected in 2024 is on top of all the existing shortages from 1 October 2018. However, they have never been registered, so it is unknown how existing shortages plus forecasts will actually turn out. As in previous years, the need for replacements has not been included, as has the number of unauthorized persons, which means that the figures are somewhat flattering again.
Another adjustment is that the researchers no longer expect an economic boom and extreme shortages on the labor market. They now assume normal economic growth. As a result, more people could be willing to switch to education and the shortages would be lower. The researchers also see that in 2018 many people from the silent reserve - people with a qualification, but who work elsewhere - were high. 'A temporary phenomenon', notes Centerdata. "The easily accessible part of the silent reserve is running out."
The easily accessible part of the silent reserve is exhausted
Apart from that, positive trends can be seen in the figures. More young people are switching from teacher training college to a job, and the average working hours is also rising slightly. Young people are also given a permanent position more quickly. The growth of side entrants who registered this year has not yet been included.
Big cities
There are also negative developments. The major cities - already struggling to find staff - are seeing many teachers leaving who can get jobs closer to home as shortages spread across the country. As a result, Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague and Rotterdam saw between 2 and 4 percent of their teachers leave. Precisely in those cities the classes became fuller as a result.
Secondary education
Despite the fall in the number of pupils, shortages in secondary education are increasing, from 850 to 1650 full-time jobs. It is even more worrying that the registration for teacher training courses for secondary education - at both colleges and universities - has been negative for the second consecutive year.
The researchers see four trends within the subjects. First of all, the group of permanent deficiency subjects, such as computer science, physics, chemistry, mathematics, technology, health care & welfare. It is precisely in those subjects that most unauthorized persons work, which is actually a hidden shortage. The second group are subjects with an increasing shortage, such as German, French and classical languages. Dutch, economics and social studies belong to the group with a decreasing deficit. Finally, there is a group of subjects where there are no or hardly any problems: gymnastics, philosophy and art subjects.
