Bright spots around the teacher shortage?
With the elections just around the corner, politicians like to throw claims, feats of arms and other tidbits in debates, interviews and other performances. The Education Magazine examines two hot topics: structural investments and the teacher shortage.
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One claim already surfaced before the ink on the coalition agreement had dried up, in the autumn of 2017. The current cabinet is investing significantly more in education than the previous one. That is also correct. But how much exactly structurally? At the time, the amount of 1,8 billion was still sounded in throbbing press releases. Beginning of February D66 party leader Sigrid Kaag came to two billion euros in an interview with the Onderwijsblad, except that she omitted the word 'structural'.
That makes a big difference, of course. By far the most structural investments in education by this cabinet stem from the coalition agreement of three and a half years ago. What are we talking about then? Extra money for preschool and early childhood education, workload reduction, salary improvement in primary education, the quality of technical pre-vocational secondary education, reduction of tuition fees for first-year students in higher education. In addition, an extra 250 million euros is allocated annually for applied and fundamental research education budget. All in all, a net package of about XNUMX billion euros in structural investments in education & research.
One-off
In the fight against the teacher shortage, inequality of opportunity and later the consequences of the corona pandemic, the cabinet has again pulled out its wallet in recent years. But that new money was almost all one-off. Twice The Hague pulled extra money out of its hat to absorb the impact of the corona crisis, 495 million euros in May and 210 million in November 2020. Part of this is intended as compensation for students in MBO and higher education , but the largest part - if all goes well - ends up at the schools.
In addition, there was the 300 million euros that went to primary and secondary education at the end of 2019 via the autumn covenant for more development time and a reduction in workload. The AOb in the end did not sign it, because it contained almost only one-off money. Except for 16,5 million for salary improvement in special secondary education. 32 million euros a year was added to tackle the teacher shortage in large cities.
Last year, the cabinet also promised to absorb future budget setbacks due to higher student and pupil numbers from now on. According to these estimates, that amount will rise to 450 million euros annually in the coming years. If you add these to the more than one and a half billion, you indeed arrive at a structural amount of two billion euros for education and research. But in fact, absorbing setbacks cannot be called a real investment, it is rather the prevention of deterioration.
Corona recovery program
In essence, this also applies to the National Education Program ('support program for recovery and prospects'), which was launched exactly one month before the elections. launched by the caretaker cabinet. Extra money intended to absorb the consequences of corona for pupils and students. In total, a one-off extra 8,5 billion euros will be made available for the entire education sector over the next two and a half years. Of this, approximately 5,8 billion is aimed at primary and secondary education and 2,7 billion goes to MBO and higher education. That money not only goes to school boards, but also to municipalities and to compensation for students. In addition, institutions will be compensated with a structural € 645 million for the larger influx of students - the growth spurt in higher education is also a result of the pandemic.
Although the comprehensive plan needs to be worked out on many points - it remains unclear how exactly those 5,8 and 2,7 billion are built up - this is of course a large amount of (one-off) money. A delta plan against the impact of the corona crisis. At the same time, the other crisis, the teacher shortage, remains worrying and topical. Because who is going to provide all that extra guidance? Hence the AOb also always requires attention for 'education after corona'.
For example, it turns out that between 2009 and 2019 the national government invested approximately 1,7 billion more in primary education, but that other governments spent 1,9 billion less on that.
And besides: the money from The Hague is only part of the whole story. Last year a investigation report by research firm McKinsey, commissioned by the Ministry of Education. This shows that the national government invested approximately 2009 billion more in basic education between 2019 and 1,7, but at the same time other governments spent 1,9 billion less on that. Municipalities in particular kept their hands on the cut, partly because they were short of money on youth care.
Current funding is sufficient for schools to meet a minimum basic quality, McKinsey concludes. But for the political ambitions, tackling the teacher shortage and combating inequality of opportunity in these two sectors alone, up to 1,5 billion more is needed per year. Politicians who like to talk about fine ambitions now also know how much money they have to put on the table for that.
Fruits
In the aftermath of his ministry, education minister Arie Slob regularly emphasizes that points of light shine in the fight against the teacher shortage. The cabinet's approach is beginning to bear fruit, he argued in the House of Representatives. To add: but of course we are not there yet. The latter is of course factually correct. But what about those positive signs?
To begin with: the national size of the teacher shortage is unknown. This is because it is not registered by the Ministry of Education, despite an ardent wish of a majority in the House of Representatives. An adopted motion by the SP, GroenLinks and the PvdA, which Slob called on to do so two years ago, has still not been implemented.
Unfortunately, it cannot be concluded that the teacher shortage has been structurally reduced within six months, according to the researchers.
Slob itself refers to encouraging signals from a number of large cities. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht and Almere have started keeping track of figures. And according to the recent Trend report on the labor market for teachers at the end of last year, the shortages there decreased between February and October 2020.
But the researchers immediately make a few important comments. 'Unfortunately, it cannot be concluded from this that the teacher shortage has been structurally reduced within six months', they write. It is possible that there will be a positive effect from the contingency plans that the cities have made to deal with the teacher shortage. But two measurements are too few to base conclusions on. What the researchers do point out is the influence of the corona pandemic. An important effect seems to be due to the corona crisis. School boards report in conversations with OCW that fewer teachers are currently leaving for another school or for a job outside of education than before. If this mobility has now been reduced by corona, it is feared that this effect will be temporary. '
Influence of corona crisis
The impact of the corona crisis also applies to the estimates of the national shortages. According to the same trend report, unfilled employment in primary education will be adjusted downwards in the coming years. In 2025, primary education expects to be short of about 1500 FTEs of teachers and directors, on top of the existing shortage. Earlier that estimate was about three thousand FTEs. The researchers attribute this favorable development to, among other things, an increase in the number of lateral entrants, but also to the deteriorating economic outlook. Traditionally, these cushion the staff shortages in education. The researchers are extremely cautious and emphasize that the teacher shortage is still increasing. “The decline in deficit growth looks hopeful,” they write. 'However, it is still an increase in deficits compared to the current situation. In that respect, there is still cause for concern.'
The decline in deficit growth looks hopeful. However, it is still an increase in deficits compared to the current situation.
Another bright spot, according to Slob, is the increase in the intake at teacher training colleges. And it is true: it has been on the rise in recent years by about ten percent each time. This academic year the intake has suddenly risen spectacularly, it turned out last month from new figures: an increase of 32 percent. But a number of corona factors also play a role here. Because secondary school students did not take a central final exam last year and much less opted for a gap year, the intake into higher professional education has risen sharply.
It is precisely the PABO figures that give a distorted picture because the admission requirements have been temporarily relaxed and the required test could be taken later. As a result, the Association of Universities of Applied Sciences expects that new students will still drop out. Too early to cheer, and that also applies to the considerable influx of lateral entrants. The big question is and remains how many new teachers have been found for long-term education, and how many will unfortunately drop out again after a few years - when the economy picks up again and the workload takes its toll.
This article appeared in the March issue of the Onderwijsblad. AObmembers receive the magazine eleven times a year in the mail.
