Teacher shortage systematically underestimated

Tekst Robert Sikkes - Redactie Onderwijsblad - 7 oktober 2019 - 3 Minuten om te lezen

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Year after year, the need for teachers is examined, as are the shortages. Nevertheless, an unexpectedly great shortage of people has come over and over again in recent years. Last month there was no longer talk about a four-day school week, but about scrapping the first year of primary education. Pupils in the big cities would then only go to primary school from the age of five.

Calculations

Center data - the research agency that calculates forecasts about the shortages - keeps the calculations manageable and correct by assuming full-time jobs. Fine. In practice, however, teachers in primary and special education have an average job of 0,73 FTEs. Colleagues in secondary education have a so-called part-time factor of 0,81.

Teachers in primary and special education have an average job of 0,73 FTEs. Colleagues in secondary education have a so-called part-time factor of 0,81.

So many more people are needed to fill in the gaps. Instead of three thousand vacancies, primary and secondary education will have a shortage of four thousand next year. In 2023, the deficit will not grow to XNUMX but to XNUMX.

You can hope that the new side entrants and recent graduates will want to work more hours, but those part-time factors have not seen much movement for years. Research in primary education recently showed that, out of loyalty to their colleagues, people want to work longer hours to fill a gap, but not forever.

Need for replacements

And even if we include the part-time factor in the shortages from now on, we are not there yet. The need for replacements is also not included in the forecasts, because there is insufficient data on this.

What we do know is that sickness, pregnancy and other leave in primary education require roughly 10 percent of replacements, good for 9 full-time jobs. In secondary education, the replacement requirement is officially almost XNUMX percent, or around five thousand full-time jobs. We know from secondary education that schools no longer accommodate short-term absenteeism, so the need there will be somewhat lower.

The need for replacements is also not included in the forecasts, because there is insufficient data on this

Furthermore, Centerdata writes in their latest report that they pretend that there were no shortages in 2016. That 'hidden shortage', in schools that solved problems due to staff shortages by enlarging the classes or by putting unauthorized people in front of the class, you should actually add to it.

Too late and too thin

If we look at all the thousands of jobs that have to be filled in primary and secondary education, the measures taken by the cabinet seem too late and too meager. So far, plans to tackle the teacher shortage have not proven very effective.

What according to the AOb missing in the palette of measures is a long-term investment plan. Better salaries, among other things. That works, Centerdata wrote in 2011 in response to what was then Teacher Action Plan. That consisted of a structural investment of one billion euros, mainly in salaries. The researchers reported that the deficit would have been greater if the Teacher Action Plan hadn't been there. 'It has a clear dampening effect on the shortages.'

Many part-time teachers are needed to fill full-time jobs

In primary education 1,37 teacher is needed for 1 job. In secondary education, 1,23 teacher is required for 1 job.

The part-time factor is greater than 1, because teachers work part-time. For example, replacing a full-time job in primary education requires 1 / 0,73 = 1,37 teachers.