Help, MBO is shrinking (later)
MBO is faced with a decrease in student numbers of up to 20 percent. ROCs had better be prepared, the Court of Audit warned earlier this year: otherwise education will be the worst of the bill.
Image: Techniekbeeldbank.nu
Wait a minute, shrink? MBO institutions grew last year. Just look at the national picture: against a slight decrease in the number of students from the vocational training pathway (BOL), there is a considerable growth in the vocational training pathway (BBL), students who work in practice for three or four days and one or two go to school days a week. Yes, also in shrinking areas.
They also see this trend in the east of Overijssel at Roc van Twente in the current school year. “As of October 1, we have about 450 more students than last school year. This increase is due to the BBL courses. These have grown by about 600 students, the BOL has decreased by about 150 students. The growth of bbl is strongly related to the economic situation: the economy is in full swing and then you see that the bbl courses are growing, ”says chairman of the board John van der Vegt.
The economy is in full swing and you see that BBL courses are growing
At Friese Poort, in the north of the country, they recognize that image. “We like that we are growing. But that does make it extra complex: on the one hand, we are preparing considerably for shrinkage, on the other hand, we still have to accommodate a growing number of students, ”said chairman of the board Remco Meijerink. There is no doubt that a significant decline in student numbers is on the horizon. “We are expecting a 15 percent drop in student numbers over time. We expect the biggest contraction in the next five to seven years. ”
Scatter
Roc's better be prepared for a big contraction, warned the General Audit Chamber earlier this year*The Education Inspectorate has also already paid attention to the demographic decline in MBO. In September 2017, the inspectorate dedicated one thematic research . . According to calculations, the number of students will fall from 500 thousand now to 430 thousand in 2032, a decrease of 14 percent. For some regions - parts of the provinces of Friesland and Groningen, the Achterhoek and the south of Limburg, the calculators even calculated a decline of up to 20 percent.
And that has significant consequences, on various fronts. With a steady decline in income, educational institutions run the risk that housing costs will weigh more heavily on the budget. Lessons from the past teach that high expenditure on buildings can hang around an institution like a millstone - see Roc Leiden. An extreme example, but still. Wrong real estate decisions can kill education, warns the Court of Audit.
We were able to solve it in Sneek and Drachten because a Rabobank branch there became partly vacant. These are high-quality buildings, where we temporarily rent space
Friese Poort is such an institution with many buildings in its own possession. “We currently own 95 percent of the buildings. We want to reduce that to 85 percent in the coming years. At the same time, we are going to rent more to be more flexible, ”says Meijerink. Expressed in figures: the roc has about 90 thousand square meters of real estate, about 10 to 15 thousand square meters of this must be flexible. Rented space also compensates for the temporarily larger influx. “We were able to solve this problem in Sneek and Drachten because a Rabobank branch there was partly vacant. These are high-quality buildings where we temporarily rent space. With technology that is more difficult, for that you need rooms with machines and equipment. "
At the Roc van Twente they are also looking for a mix in the arsenal of buildings. “In the three major cities in Twente - Enschede, Hengelo and Almelo - we have centrally located locations near NS stations. In theory we could withdraw to those central locations, but we are also looking at the spread in the region, ”said Chairman of the Board Van der Vegt.
Depression
In the south of Limburg, MBO institutions Leeuwenborgh and Arcus in the triangle Maastricht, Heerlen and Sittard have been operating as one institution under the name Vista College since last summer. The merger, in which the support services have been merged, is partly prompted by the demographic contraction in the region: about 15 percent for the next eight years, while the decline also started years ago.
All in all, a significant decline in student numbers, says board chairman Jos Kusters. “In themselves Leeuwenborgh and Arcus would still be viable, but you have to look beyond that. Both schools each had more than a hundred courses. The shrinkage causes fragmentation. Fifteen students or less in a class, funded: at a certain point that is no longer possible. You also have to invest in buildings, materials and equipment. So if we had not merged, I think we would see a reduction in the educational offer in the region. ”
If we hadn't merged, I think we'd have an impoverishment of the range of education in the region.
We want to leave education alone for as long as possible, argues Kusters. Unless a course is no longer viable at a specific location. “It could be that a course is canceled in Heerlen, but then we can keep the same course 25 kilometers away. It is not the distances you see in north. You don't want a fifteen or sixteen year old to travel 50 or 60 kilometers. ”
Shrinkage market
Impoverishment of the regional training palette is also one of the issues warned by the Court of Auditors. In the north of the country, the various secondary vocational education institutions in Friesland, Groningen and Drenthe are meeting to coordinate the educational offer. Meijerink: “We don't have such far-reaching plans as Arcus and Leeuwenborgh, but we talk to each other very regularly. Then we also put the question on the table: who offers what? That is not always easy. In a shrinking market, you also look at your own institution and how you can keep it attractive. That is a field of tension. That also demands something from the directors at that table. After all, you are also responsible for your own employees. But efficiency trumps individual interests. ”
As far as those employees are concerned, a considerable part of them will drop out in the coming years. They foresee this pension wave throughout the country and therefore also in the shrinking areas. Van der Vegt: “Because the outflow is significant, we will still need new teachers and employees despite the demographic decline.” His colleague Meijerink from Friese Poort thinks that too. "The attrition is expected to be so great that we will have to continue to do our best to attract good staff."
