The big contraction is coming
It is the turn of secondary education. The decline in student numbers will be significant in the coming years. "This will have consequences for the system."
Picture: Type tank
Spread across the Netherlands, the shrinkage figures are still somewhat manageable. In the next five years, the number of pupils in secondary education will decline by almost 6 percent. In ten years' time this will be slightly more than 10 percent. But those are averages. The bangers fall in sparsely populated regions and in VMBO.
Light effect havo and vwo
Havo and vwo are initially hardly affected by the drop in pupils. In the next three years there will even be a small increase in the number of students in the upper years of VWO: almost 2 percent. Only in five years' time will the shrinkage begin to have a slight effect in the upper years of VWO (minus 1 percent) and HAVO (minus 4 percent).
| in 3 years | in 5 years | in 10 years | |
| HAVO 4/5 | -1 percent | -4 percent | -6 percent |
| VWO 4/5/6 | +2 percent | -1 percent | -5 percent |
Source: Reference projections OCW (2017), including adult education (VAVO) and green secondary education.
Hard blows VMBO
In pre-vocational secondary education, numbers are dropping faster and significantly harder. At the moment, some 215 thousand pupils are enrolled in the upper years of a VMBO school. In 2020 there will probably be 192 thousand: a decline of 11 percent within three years. The two lowest levels of VMBO are hit hardest. According to the latest prognoses, the number of pupils in grades 3 and 4 of the pre-vocational secondary vocational and basic vocational track (KL and BL) will decrease by 18 percent in the next three years, rising to 23 percent within five years. These are also averages for the whole of the Netherlands. Practical education can expect a decrease of 14 percent over five years. The forecasts do not show any further decline in practical education until 2022.
| in 3 years | in 5 years | in 10 years | |
| VMBO class 3/4 | -15 percent | -20 percent | -25 percent |
| VMBO bl 3/4 | -24 percent | -28 percent | -31 percent |
| VMBO kl + bl 3/4 | -18 percent | -23 percent | -28 percent |
| Practical education | -11 percent | -14 percent | -14 percent |
Source: Reference projections OCW (2017), including adult education (VAVO) and green secondary education.
Clazien Rodenburg, AObdistrict administrator of secondary education in the provinces of Utrecht, Noord-Holland and Flevoland, it is not surprising that VMBO schools are hit hardest: “In the Gooi, for example, well-behaved parents do everything they can to prevent their children from entering VMBO, let alone on the lowest two levels. ”
It has been difficult for years to prod students for technical education
The 'flight to the top' is also known to the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW). For years, the total population of secondary students has been slowly shifting towards HAVO and VWO. “Of course there is a chance that we will actually become smarter together,” says Christianne Mattijssen, director of secondary education at OCW. But she also notes that parents today prefer to opt for theoretically oriented education. And not for school types that offer practical education. “It has been difficult for years to poke students into technical education, for example,” says Mattijssen. "And that is a shame because this type of education, learning by doing, suits many students." Moreover, the VMBO framework and basis lay the foundation for beautiful and important careers, Mattijssen thinks. "Companies are eager for these professionals."
Soon we will not be able to sell to parents in the north of Groningen that there is no longer a lyceum nearby for their children
OCW has released four civil servants to visit schools and discuss the decline and possible solutions. Although Mattijssen emphasizes that schools must determine themselves how they deal with the drop in pupils 'based on their autonomy'. The ministry stimulates the widest possible range of education in the Netherlands. Mattijssen: “This will have consequences for the system. We will soon not be able to sell to parents in the north of Groningen that there is no longer a lyceum in the area for their children. ”
Become a Partner
What is currently happening in Zeeuws-Vlaanderen - forced mergers to prevent education from becoming too remote - is a foretaste of what awaits the less populated regions in particular. In South Limburg, all pre-vocational secondary education schools of two different school boards jointly started the Technology College Parkstad last year. Upper school students with a technical profile follow the last two years of pre-vocational secondary education at this college in Heerlen. In this way, schools keep their technical profiles intact and this option for students continues to exist. In Maastricht and the Western Mining Region, work is also being done on this type of technology lectures.
The competition for the student is less than ever in Friesland
Collaboration in the region is the only option, says Marja de Bree. She is a district manager for the AOb in Groningen, Friesland and Drenthe. “In Friesland, the school boards consult about exchange scenarios for departments and locations. The competition for the student is less here than ever. ” In the past, De Bree sometimes saw 200.000 euros in the budget for advertising activities of a school community, but that era seems to be over. Everyone fishes from the same pond. “There is no student if you compete with each other. Okay, your market share is going up for a while. But in the long term, competition is a major expense. You can keep three teachers for the same amount. ”
Retraining
Unfortunately, the drop in pupils and the anticipated teacher shortage will not cancel each other out. Not enough secondary education teachers will retire for this in the next ten years. Moreover, there is a shortage of teachers in specific subjects, such as physics, chemistry, mathematics and German. At the Achterhoek VO school community they did see an opportunity to work on the shortage subjects as well as on employment. In 2016, a few teachers who taught a different subject already wanted to start the second-grade math teacher training. But they got stuck on the entry requirements and on the high level. “It requires quite a bit, in addition to your job and your family,” says project leader and school director Roos Willemsen.
With a mathematics degree, you will also be more employable in the future
Achterhoek VO started a class together with the Hogeschool Arnhem Nijmegen (HAN), every Friday afternoon in the region. The teachers were allowed to do a test run for a year: work on the entry requirements for mathematics and see if they could master the subject and enjoy it. They were also allowed to stop that first year without financial consequences. Sixteen of them did. On the other hand, there are nine teachers who are likely to complete the training. Shrinkage in the Achterhoek was not immediately the reason for the project, Willemsen says. "More the shortage courses." But: “Our employees are of course not crazy either. They know that with a mathematics degree they can also be used more widely in the future. ”
This article will appear in the Onderwijsblad on Tuesday 5 December.
De AOb calls on the ministry to learn from the decline in primary education and, above all, not to cut back on the budget for secondary education: Read: "With help from The Hague, shrinkage in secondary education can be a blessing in disguise".
