The facts about the teacher shortage
Schools struggle to find a teacher for each class. The newspapers are packed with reports about the teacher shortage. 'The shelf is out', we read. But what are the facts about the teacher shortage? On the AObwebsite, we put it in a row. We keep supplementing this page with new facts about the teacher shortage and with possible solutions.
Picture: Type tank
How big is the shortage at the moment?
Every day questions are received by the AObpress officers of the media who want to know how big the shortage is in the whole of the Netherlands or their region. We simply don't know. Every day people quit their jobs, every day schools are busy with job interviews. Researchers usually only come up with figures on unfilled vacancies after a few months to a year. Job boards are also not up to date. The website Teacher shortage now asks schools to report it themselves, the counter is more than two hundred. Because not all schools participate, it is an indication.
Did we know it was short?
Yes. Yes. And yes again. The opening sentence of the report: Teacher! of the Rinnooy Kan committee in 2007 stated: 'The Netherlands is on the eve of a dramatic quantitative shortage of quality teachers.' Then that acute shortage did not occur. The student decline started, due to the shift in the state pension age, older teachers postponed their retirement and continued to work longer. But Centerdata reports made it clear year after year that a shortage was inevitable. And would increase for the time being. In 2017, Center Data will be slightly more optimistic about the deficit, especially as starters and side entrants will get bigger jobs. Incidentally, Centerdata always estimates the shortage after ten years at around 8 to 10 full-time jobs if nothing changes. So a structural shortage.
There are also unemployed teachers, cannot they find work?
Perhaps. The number of unemployed in education has been falling rapidly since the turnaround in the labor market. And it is not that easy to attract people from shrinking regions to the Randstad. Living in the Randstad is much more expensive, which makes the switch difficult. The unemployed are mostly elderly people with a home and partner far from the major deficit regions, which makes switching difficult. They are of course obliged to apply, but despite the shortage, they are regularly told 'no' when they respond. School boards are reluctant to hire over XNUMXs. But the biggest factor is that in shrinking regions there will be plenty of jobs again in a few years. If nothing changes, there will be shortages in five, but certainly in ten years time, even in Zeeland, East Groningen and South Limburg, Centerdata predicts. School boards in the Randstad are already noticing this: young teachers who have started working in the cities during times of high unemployment, return to their own city or village and leave dozens of vacancies in the worst emergency areas.
Graph: Unfulfilled demand as a percentage of primary school teachers plus directors in 2022 (left) and 2027 (right). Source: Centerdata.
No classes have been reported without a teacher yet, is there any shortage?
Yes, but schools make the shortage invisible. Understandably, they don't feel like sending children home at the start of the school year. We hear all kinds of solutions to tackle the problems with vacancies. This varies from temporarily letting colleagues work more days. To an internal counselor, teaching assistant or principal one or more days before the class. Merging classes and having a teacher and an assistant teach is also a solution, just like using subject teachers, or looking for lateral entrants with an accelerated PABO education. It is possible to start with art and flying work. But as soon as there are sick people, people quit their jobs or a serious flu wave breaks out, the team collapses like a house of cards. Then classes should be divided or children sent home. Making the shortage invisible is a logical reflex, school teams do not want to disappoint students. But do children get a good education? Less and less.
